After early start, worst of flu season may be over

NEW YORK (AP) — The worst of the flu season appears to be over.

The number of states reporting intense or widespread illnesses dropped again last week, and in a few states there was very little flu going around, U.S. health officials said Friday.

The season started earlier than normal, first in the Southeast and then spreading. But now, by some measures, flu activity has been ebbing for at least four weeks in much of the country. Flu and pneumonia deaths also dropped the last two weeks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported.

"It's likely that the worst of the current flu season is over," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said.

But flu is hard to predict, he and others stressed, and there have been spikes late in the season in the past.

For now, states like Georgia and New York — where doctor's offices were jammed a few weeks ago — are reporting low flu activity. The hot spots are now the West Coast and the Southwest.

Among the places that have seen a drop: Lehigh Valley Hospital-Cedar Crest in Allentown, Pa., which put up a tent outside its emergency room last month to help deal with the steady stream of patients. There were about 100 patients each day back then. Now it's down to 25 and the hospital may pack up its tent next week, said Terry Burger, director of infection control and prevention for the hospital.

"There's no question that we're seeing a decline," she said.

In early December, CDC officials announced flu season had arrived, a month earlier than usual. They were worried, saying it had been nine years since a winter flu season started like this one. That was 2003-04 — one of the deadliest seasons in the past 35 years, with more than 48,000 deaths.

Like this year, the major flu strain was one that tends to make people sicker, especially the elderly, who are most vulnerable to flu and its complications

But back then, that year's flu vaccine wasn't made to protect against that bug, and fewer people got flu shots. The vaccine is reformulated almost every year, and the CDC has said this year's vaccine is a good match to the types that are circulating. A preliminary CDC study showed it is about 60 percent effective, which is close to the average.

So far, the season has been labeled moderately severe.

Like others, Lehigh Valley's Burger was cautious about making predictions. "I'm not certain we're completely out of the woods," with more wintry weather ahead and people likely to be packed indoors where flu can spread around, she said.

The government does not keep a running tally of flu-related deaths in adults, but has received reports of 59 deaths in children. The most — nine — were in Texas, where flu activity was still high last week. Roughly 100 children die in an average flu season, the CDC says

On average, about 24,000 Americans die each flu season, according to the CDC.

According to the CDC report, the number of states with intense activity is down to 19, from 24 the previous week, and flu is widespread in 38 states, down from 42.

Flu is now minimal in Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

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Online:

CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/

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After Blizzard, Northeast Begins to Dig Out

The Northeast began the arduous process of cleaning up after a fierce storm swept through the region leaving behind up to three feet of snow in some areas.

By early this morning, 650,000 homes and businesses were without power and at least five deaths were being blamed on the storm: three in Canada, one in New York and one in Connecticut, The Associated Press reported.

The storm dumped snow from New Jersey to Maine, affecting more than 25 million people, with more than two feet falling in areas of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Hampshire. The Postal Service closed post offices and suspended mail delivery today in New England.

As the storm waned, officials in the hardest hit areas cautioned residents to remain indoors and off the roads to ease the clean-up.

Massachusetts was hard hit by the storm, with more than two feet of snow in Boston and even more in coastal areas. State police and national guard troops helped rescue more than 50 stranded motorists and even helped deliver a baby girl, according to Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.

Patrick enacted the first statewide driving ban since the 1978 blizzard, which left 27 inches of snow and killed dozens. The ban was to be lifted at 4 p.m. today, the governor said.

However, Patrick cautioned residents to act with extreme caution even after the ban is over.

"Stay inside and be patient," Patrick said.

In Massachusetts a boy reportedly died of carbon monoxide poisoning as he helped his father shovel snow on Saturday, according to ABCNews.com affiliate WCVB-TV in Boston.

For residents along the coast, the waning snowfall didn't mean the end of the storm. Storm surges along the Massachusetts coastline forced some residents out of their homes Saturday morning.

"We've got 20-foot waves crashing and flooding some homes," Bob Connors on Plum Island told WCVB. "We have power and heat and all that. We just have a very angry ocean. In my 33 years, I've never seen the seas this high."

Darren McCollester/Getty Images

Blizzard Shuts Down Parts of Connecticut, Massachusetts Watch Video

Blizzard 2013: Power Outages for Hundreds of Thousands of People Watch Video

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FULL COVERAGE: Blizzard of 2013

In Connecticut, Gov. Dannel Malloy declared a state of emergency and closed all roads in the state. The state police responded to more than 1,600 calls over the last 24 hours and the governor called up an additional 270 National Guard members.

"If you're not an emergency personnel that's required to be somewhere, stay home," Malloy said.

Overnight, snow fell at a rate of up to five to six inches per hour in parts of Connecticut. In Milford, more than 38 inches of snow had fallen by this morning.

In Fairfield, Conn. firefighters and police officers on the day shift were unable to make it to work, so the overnight shift remained on duty.

PHOTOS: Blizzard Hits Northeast

The wind and snow started affecting the region during the Friday night commute.

In Cumberland, Maine, the conditions led to a 19-car pile-up and in New York, hundreds of commuters were stranded on the snowy Long Island Expressway. Police and firefighters were still working to free motorists early this morning.

"The biggest problem that we're having is that people are not staying on the main portion or the middle section of the roadway and veering to the shoulders, which are not plowed," said Lt. Daniel Meyer from the Suffolk County Police Highway Patrol.

In New York, authorities are digging out hundreds of cars that got stuck overnight on the Long Island Expressway.

Bob Griffith of Syosset, N.Y., said he tried leave early to escape the storm, but instead ended up stuck in the snow by the side of the road.

"I tried to play it smart in that I started early in the day, when it was raining," said Griffith. "But the weather beat us to the punch."

Suffolk County Executive Steven Bellone said the snow had wreaked havoc on the roadways.

"I saw state plows stuck on the side of the road. I've never seen anything like this before," Bellone said.

However, some New York residents, who survived the wrath of Hurricane Sandy, were rattled by having to face another large and potentially dangerous storm system with hurricane force winds and flooding.

"How many storms of the century can you have in six months?" said Larry Racioppo, a resident of the hard hit Rockaway neighborhood in Queens, New York.

READ: Weather NYC: Blizzard Threatens Rockaways, Ravaged by Sandy

Snowfall Totals

In New York, a little more than 11 inches fell in the city.

By this morning, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said nearly all of the primary roads had been plowed and the department of sanitation anticipated that all roads would be plowed by the end of the day.

"It looks like we dodged a bullet, but keep in mind winter is not over," said Bloomberg.

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Violence mars funeral of Tunisian opposition leader

TUNIS (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of Tunisians turned out on Friday to mourn secular opposition leader Chokri Belaid, whose assassination has deepened a political crisis and led to violent protests against the Islamist-led government.

Teargas and smoke from burning cars at times wafted over the Tunis cemetery where Belaid was buried in the country's biggest funeral since independence leader Habib Bourguiba died in 2000.

Braving chilly rain, at least 50,000 people gathered to honor Belaid in his home district of Jebel al-Jaloud in the capital, chanting anti-Islamist and anti-government slogans.

Belaid's assassination has shocked a country which had hitherto experienced a relatively peaceful political transition since an uprising that inspired others around the Arab world.

It has heightened tensions between dominant Islamists and their secular opponents against a backdrop of frustration at the lack of social and economic progress since President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was forced to flee the country in January 2011.

"The people want a new revolution," shouted mourners in Tunis, who also sang the national anthem.

Violence erupted near the cemetery as police fired teargas at demonstrators who threw stones and set cars ablaze. Police also used teargas against protesters near the Interior Ministry, a frequent flashpoint for clashes in the Tunisian capital.

Police arrested 150 people during the disturbances in Tunis, Interior Ministry spokesman Lotfi Hidouri said.

Crowds surged around an open army truck carrying Belaid's coffin, draped in a red and white Tunisian flag, from a cultural center in Jebel al-Jaloud towards the leafy Jallaz cemetery, as a security forces helicopter flew overhead.

"Belaid, rest in peace, we will continue the struggle," crowds chanted, holding portraits of the politician killed near his home on Wednesday by a gunman who fled on a motorcycle.

Some demonstrators denounced Rachid Ghannouchi, leader of the ruling Islamist Ennahda party. "Ghannouchi, assassin, criminal," they chanted. "Tunisia is free, terrorism out."

CLASHES IN GAFSA

Police fired teargas to disperse anti-government protesters throwing stones and petrol bombs in the southern mining town of Gafsa, a stronghold of support for Belaid, witnesses said.

Crowds there had chanted "The people want the fall of the regime", a slogan first used against Ben Ali.

In Sidi Bouzid, the southern town where the revolt against the ousted strongman began, about 10,000 marched to mourn Belaid and shout slogans against Ennahda and the government.

Banks, factories and some shops were closed in Tunis and other cities in response to a strike called by unions in protest at Belaid's killing, but buses were running normally.

Tunis Air canceled all its flights because of the strike, a spokesman for the national airline said, adding that normal service would resume on Saturday.

After Belaid's assassination, Prime Minister Hamdi Jebali, an Islamist, said he would dissolve the government and form a cabinet of technocrats to rule until elections could be held.

But his own Ennahda party and its secular coalition partners complained they had not been consulted, casting doubt over the status of the government and compounding political uncertainty.

On Friday Jebali reiterated his plan for a cabinet of technocrats, saying this would not need the approval of the National Constituent Assembly because he was not dissolving his government, but would replace all of its members.

"This government is ready," he told reporters, without disclosing the names of his new ministers.

"HOPE EXISTS"

No one has claimed responsibility for the killing of Belaid, a lawyer and secular opposition figure.

His family have blamed Ennahda but the party has denied any hand in the shooting. Crowds have attacked several Ennahda party offices in Tunis and other cities in the past two days.

"Hope still exists in Tunisia," Fatma Saidan, a noted Tunisian actor, told Reuters at Belaid's funeral. "We will continue to struggle against extremism and political violence."

She called for national unity, saying: "We are ready to accept Islamists, but they don't accept us."

While Belaid had only a modest political following, his criticism of Ennahda policies spoke for many Tunisians who fear religious radicals are bent on snuffing out freedoms won in the first of the revolts that rippled through the Arab world.

Secular groups have accused the Islamist-led government of a lax response to attacks by ultra-orthodox Salafi Islamists on cinemas, theatres and bars in recent months.

The economic effect of political uncertainty and street unrest could be serious in a country which has yet to draft a new constitution and which relies heavily on the tourist trade.

Mohamed Ali Toumi, president of the Tunisian Federation of Travel Agencies, described the week's events as a catastrophe that would have a negative impact on tourism, but he told the national news agency TAP no cancellations had been reported yet.

France, which had already announced the closure of its schools in Tunis on Friday and Saturday, urged its nationals to stay clear of potential flashpoints in the capital.

The cost of insuring Tunisian government bonds against default rose to its highest level in more than four years this week and ratings agency Fitch said it could further downgrade Tunisia if political instability continues or worsens.

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HP tightens worker rules for China suppliers

SAN FRANCISCO: ELGAUS computer maker Hewlett-Packard said on Friday it is cracking down on abuses of student workers and temporary labor used by its suppliers in China.

The move by HP came as Silicon Valley neighbor and rival Apple continued a program to improve conditions for employees at facilities in China that produce its coveted gadgets.

HP announced new guidelines for student and temporary workers in China intended to reinforce local labor laws and introduce "beyond regulatory expectations" for suppliers.

"Student and temporary workers are two very vulnerable groups within the Chinese workforce," said Sanna Johnson, executive director of the Center for Child Rights and Corporate Social Responsibility in China.

"They are often entering the workplace with limited experiences and support."

HP cooperated with the center on the changes.

"We have worked closely with leading Chinese stakeholders to develop our new student and temporary worker guidelines to ensure the highest standards of ethical workforce management," said HP senior vice president of supply chain operations Tony Prophet.

Along with mandating fair compensation, HP guidelines require that workers be free to quit or lodge grievances without facing reprisals.

The number of student workers must be limited to "acceptable levels" with the majority of employees having full-time status, according to HP. In addition, student workers' jobs must complement their primary areas of study.

HP said the new guidelines take effect immediately and that compliance will be tracked with ongoing audits as well as through a key performance indicator program that collects performance data about suppliers.

HP boasts an extensive supply chain that spans more than 45 countries and territories.

Apple last year ramped up its vigilance regarding underage workers, excessive overtime and other abuses at China plants contracted to make its devices.

- AFP/de

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Riots unfortunate, won't recur, Narendra Modi told EU envoys

NEW DELHI: German ambassador Michael Steiner on Friday declared that the European Union has ended its boycott of Narendra Modi in what marked a big step towards ending the diplomatic isolation the Gujarat chief minister has faced since the 2002 communal riots.

The statement came a day after EU's ambassador to India Joao Cravinho announced the group's intention to engage with Modi. With the UK having already reached out to Modi, the US remains the only missing piece in a full scale diplomatic embrace of the BJP leader who has emerged as a strong contender for the party's PM nomination. China and Japan never shunned Modi largely because of the business potential of Gujarat.

As reported on Friday, European envoys met Modi over lunch in January to discuss certain issues, including accountability for the 2002 riots. It is learnt that Modi described the riots as "unfortunate". He is said to have also assured them that something like that is never likely to happen again. Although this fell far short of the apology that he has been asked to submit for the riots, the regret may facilitate the process of re-engagement with the a bloc which has set tough thresholds on issued like inter-faith harmony, human rights, environment and other concerns.

It is also learnt that Modi said all the "right things'' in the meeting, including that he was all for an "inclusive approach'' in the governance of the country. Modi also said that he would respect any verdict of the judiciary.

Taking off from where Cravinho left, Steiner, who hosted the lunch for Modi, said the EU respected India's democratic institutions, its election results and also had full faith in India's judicial system.

"Because of this respect and trust, we are now in a new phase," Steiner said, adding that even the Indian people will like this respect. "We had said that we would take a fresh look at the issue after the Gujarat elections and that is what we are doing when we talk to him directly,'' he said, refusing to elaborate.

In reaching out to Modi, the EU has followed in the footsteps of countries like the UK and Japan, who have been looking to ramp up their economic engagement with Gujarat. For Modi, of course, it means yet another significant endorsement in the run up to the 2014 parliamentary elections.

The EU apparently felt that this was the right time to engage with Modi as he had again proved that the people of Gujarat supported him and his developmental agenda. The invitation to Modi for a meeting with the envoys was extended to him days after the polling in Gujarat and before the results were out. The EU already looks upon him as a national player. The issue of his emerging as a probable prime ministerial candidate for BJP was not discussed at the meeting.

Asked if the EU, which has boycotted Modi for over 10 years since the riots, was softening, Cravinho had said, "Some months ago, there was end of one part of judicial process which shows that justice in India may be slow but it produces results. And that has helped to look towards closure of what everybody agrees is very terrible set of events''.

That is a fig leaf for the volte-face the Europeans have effected in the decade after they banned Modi from travelling to Europe following the riots. The US had sent a business and official team to the CM's biennial jamboree, Vibrant Gujarat, last month and the expectation was that this would pave the way for the ultimate US acceptance.

However, with a new Obama administration taking shape in Washington, particularly a new State Department under the new Secretary of State John Kerry, it is unlikely a US decision will be made anytime soon. Certainly not before some key personnel changes have been made in the State Department. Sources indicated that a change of heart in Washington was well on its way, though it is unlikely to happen this year.

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Health officials: Worst of flu season may be over

NEW YORK (AP) — The worst of the flu season appears to be over.

The number of states reporting intense or widespread flu dropped again last week, U.S. health officials said Friday.

The season started earlier than normal, spiking first in the Southeast and then spreading. But now, by some measures, flu activity has been ebbing for at least four weeks in much of the country. Flu and pneumonia deaths have been dropping for two weeks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported.

"It's likely that the worst of the current flu season is over," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said in an email.

It's been nine years since a conventional flu season started like this one. That was the winter of 2003-04 — one of the deadliest in the past 35 years, with more than 48,000 deaths. Like this year, that season had the same dominant flu strain, one that tends to make people sicker.

But back then, the flu vaccine didn't protect against that bug, and fewer people got flu shots. The vaccine is reformulated each year, and the CDC has said this year's vaccine is a good match to the types that are circulating. A preliminary CDC study showed this year's version is about 60 percent effective.

So far, the season has been labeled moderately severe.

The government does not keep a running tally of flu-related deaths in adults, but has received reports of 59 such deaths in children. The most — nine — were in Texas, where flu activity was still high last week.

On average, about 24,000 Americans die each flu season, according to the CDC.

Flu vaccinations are recommended for everyone 6 months or older.

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Online:

CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/index.htm

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Blizzard of 2013: Monster Storm Bears Down

A blizzard of possibly historic proportions is set to strike the Northeast, starting today and bringing up to 2 feet of snow and strong winds that could shut down densely populated cities such as Boston and New York City.

A storm from the west will join forces with one from the south to form a nor'easter that will sit and spin just off the East Coast, affecting more than 43 million Americans. Wind gusts will reach 50 to 60 mph from Philadelphia to Boston.

"[It] could definitely be a historic winter storm for the Northeast," Adrienne Leptich of the National Weather Service in Upton, N.Y., said. "We're looking at very strong wind and heavy snow and we're also looking for some coastal flooding."

The snow began falling in New York City shortly before 7 a.m. ET. The snow is expected to mix with some sleet and then turn back into snow after 3 p.m.

Airlines have started shutting down operations between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. at major airports in the New York area as well as in Boston, Portland, Maine, Providence, and other Northeastern airports. More than 4,000 flights have been cancelled on Friday and Saturday, according to FlightAware. Airlines hope to resume flights by Saturday afternoon.

New York City is expecting up to 14 inches, which is expected to start this morning with the heaviest amounts falling at night and into Saturday. Wind gusts of 55 mph are expected in New York City and Cape Cod, Mass., could possibly see 75 mph gusts.

PHOTOS: Northeast Braces for Snowstorm

Weather Forecast: Northeast Braces for Monster Blizzard Watch Video

Winter Storm to Hit Northeast With Winds and Snow Watch Video

Boston, Providence, R.I., Hartford, Conn., and other New England cities canceled school today. Boston and other parts of New England could see more than 2 feet of snow by Saturday.

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick declared a state of emergency Friday afternoon and announced a ban on all traffic from roads after 4 p.m. It is believed that the last time the state enacted such a ban was during the blizzard of 1978.

Beach erosion and coastal flooding is possible from New Jersey to Long Island, N.Y., and into New England coastal areas. Some waves off the coast could reach more than 20 feet.

"Stay off the streets of our city. Basically, stay home," Boston Mayor Tom Menino warned Thursday.

Blizzard warnings were posted for parts of New Jersey and New York's Long Island, as well as portions of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut, including Hartford, New Haven, Conn., and Providence. The warnings extended into New Hampshire and Maine.

To the south, Philadelphia was looking at a possible 4 to 6 inches of snow.

Thousands of flights have already been canceled in anticipation of the storm. Amtrak said its Northeast trains will stop running this afternoon.

Bruce Sullivan of the National Weather Service says travel conditions will deteriorate fairly rapidly Friday night.

"The real concern here is there's going to be a lot of strong winds with this system and it's going to cause considerable blowing and drifting of snow," he said.

Parts of New York, still reeling from October's Superstorm Sandy, are still using tents and are worried how they will deal with the nor'easter.

"Hopefully, we can supply them with enough hot food to get them through before the storm starts," Staten Island hub coordinator Donna Graziano said.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said plows and 250,000 tons of salt were being put on standby.

"We hope forecasts are exaggerating the amount of snow, but you never can tell," Bloomberg said Thursday.

Residents of the Northeast have already begun to hit stores for groceries and tools to fight the mounting snow totals.

The fire department was called in to a grocery store in Salem, Mass., because there were too many people in the store Thursday afternoon trying to load up their carts with essential items.

"I'm going to try this roof melt stuff for the first time," Ian Watson of Belmont, Mass., said. "Just to prevent the ice dam. ... It's going be ugly on that roof."

ABC News' Max Golembo and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Khamenei rebuffs U.S. offer of direct talks

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran's highest authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Thursday slapped down an offer of direct talks made by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden this week, saying they would not solve the problem between them.

"Some naive people like the idea of negotiating with America, however, negotiations will not solve the problem," Khamenei said in a speech to officials and members of Iran's air force carried on his official website.

"If some people want American rule to be established again in Iran, the nation will rise up to face them," he said.

"American policy in the Middle East has been destroyed and Americans now need to play a new card. That card is dragging Iran into negotiations."

Khamenei made his comments just days after Joe Biden said the United States was prepared to meet bilaterally with the Iranian leadership. "That offer stands but it must be real and tangible," Biden said in a speech in Munich.

With traditional fiery rhetoric, Khamenei lambasted Biden's offer, saying that since the 1979 revolution the United States had gravely insulted Iran and continued to do so with its threat of military action.

"You take up arms against the nation of Iran and say: 'negotiate or we fire'. But you should know that pressure and negotiations are not compatible and our nation will not be intimidated by these actions," he added.

Relations between Iran and the United States were severed in 1979 after the overthrow of Iran's pro-western monarchy and diplomatic meetings between officials have since been very rare.

ALL OPTIONS STILL "ON THE TABLE"

Currently U.S.-Iran contact is limited to talks between Tehran and a so-called P5+1 group of powers on Iran's disputed nuclear program which are to resume on February 26 in Kazakhstan.

Israel's Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor said he was skeptical the negotiations in Almaty could yield a result, telling Israel Radio that the United States needed to demonstrate to Iran that "all options were still on the table".

Israel, widely recognized to be the only nuclear power in the Middle East, has warned it could mount a pre-emptive strike on Iranian atomic sites. Israel sees its existence as directly threatened by the prospect of an nuclear-armed Iran, given Tehran's refusal to recognize the existence of the Jewish state.

"The final option, this is the phrasing we have used, should remain in place and be serious," said Meridor.

"The fact that the Iranians have not yet come down from the path they are on means that talks ...are liable to bring about only a stalling for time," he said.

Iran maintains its nuclear program is entirely peaceful but Western powers are concerned it is intent on developing a weapons program.

Many believe a deal on settling the nuclear issue is impossible without a U.S.-Iranian thaw. But any rapprochement would require direct talks addressing many sources of mutual mistrust that have lingered since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution and the subsequent U.S. embassy hostage crisis in Tehran.

Moreover, although his re-election last November may give President Barack Obama a freer hand to pursue direct negotiations, analysts say Iran's own presidential election in June may prove an additional obstacle to progress being made.

(Additional reporting by Dan Williams; Editing by William Maclean and Jon Boyle)

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Greenlight sues Apple, with eye on cash pile

NEW YORK: US hedge fund Greenlight Capital on Thursday filed suit against Apple as it boosted pressure on the tech giant to unleash to shareholders the value of its huge capital stockpile.

Greenlight sued the maker of iPhones and iPads to block a shareholder vote that includes a proposal, supported by management, to make it impossible for the Apple board to decide to issue preferred stock.

The hedge fund alleged that Apple violated US securities policies by "bundling" the proposal on preferred stock with two other shareholder-friendly measures.

Doing so forces shareholders to accept or reject all three measures together, rather than separately, which Greenlight says violates a Securities and Exchange Commission rule.

More broadly, Greenlight argues that eliminating Apple's power to issue preferred shares would restrict Apple's ability to return value to shareholders.

"Like many other shareholders, Greenlight is dissatisfied with Apple's capital allocation strategy," Greenlight founder David Einhorn wrote in a letter to Apple shareholders.

"The combination of Apple's low (and shrinking) price-to-earnings multiple and $137 billion (and growing) hoard of cash on the balance sheet supports Greenlight's contention that Apple has an obligation to examine all options to create and unlock additional value," Einhorn said.

Greenlight is seeking to build support for its proposal that Apple issue a "perpetual preferred stock" that could carry, in Einhorn's suggestion, a four percent dividend, allowing shareholders to better share in its idle cash pile.

Such a "more shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy," Einhorn said in the letter, "would unlock hundreds of dollars of value per share."

Greenlight said it has held discussions with Apple, but the company rejected the proposal "outright" in September 2012.

Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Apply shares were up more than one percent at $459.50 in midday trade on Thursday.

- AFP/de

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UPA policies leading to jobless growth: Study by govt body

NEW DELHI: Not only has India witnessed jobless growth during the UPA's tenure, it has also seen millions pushed to become casual labour with little social security, the Institute of Applied Manpower Research (IAMR), a think-tank of the Planning Commission, has said in a recently published research paper, 'Joblessness and Informalization: Challenges to Inclusive Growth in India'.

The report by the government body comes as a scathing comment on the character of economic growth under the UPA. The authors said despite clocking phenomenal growth which has made India the world's fourth biggest economy, "employment in total and in non-agricultural sectors has not been growing. This jobless growth in recent years has been accompanied by growth in casualization and informalization".

The report noted that 15 million workers shifted out of agriculture and into the manufacturing and services sector during 2005-10, leading to agriculture's share in total employment falling from 57% to 53%. In the same period, the construction sector added 18 million people as workers as the government made huge investments in infrastructure.

Most of those moving out of agriculture (during a period in which farm productivity was on the decline) ended up being casual labour in the construction industry with little or no social security, the study said.

"Out of 44 million total employment in construction by 2010, 42 million (informal labour) hardly have any kind of social security benefit attached with it. In other words, 95% of workers in construction sector hardly have any kind of social security coverage," the study said.

This explains why the report is not gung ho about the shift in employment away from agriculture towards manufacturing and services, a development that economists would normally see as positive and as an indicator of an economy in transition.

The authors from the government think-tank warned that a "daunting and complicated task confronting the policy makers is to address the issue of informal employment within the organized sector. This issue of informalization of employment poses a serious challenge in achieving decent work and thereby achieving more inclusive growth and sustainable development".

The research paper said in the period 2005-10, the manufacturing sector saw the loss of 5 million jobs. The services sector, which saw a massive growth of jobs during 2000-2005 of 18 million jobs, witnessed only 4 million additional jobs in 2005-2010. This, the report said, was odd considering the growth period is often called that of 'service-led' growth.

The study by IAMR has a cautionary word for anyone who may proclaim that farm labour was doing better by coming to the cities as migrants to be part of an emerging India. "Undoubtedly, construction driven by significant expansion of infrastructure investment during the 11th five year plan has helped in absorbing surplus workers from agriculture sector. However, ensuring decent employment for those moving out of agriculture remains a big challenge," it said.

India's track record on this front seems to be one of the worst among the developing countries. The study said "what makes India different is that the share of informal workers in the total workforce is well above the other emerging market economies - 93% of all workers compared to 55% in Brazil".

IAMR calculated that the prevalence of informal or casual labour has been increasing not only in the small and medium scale unorganized sector but also in the kind of labour big manufacturers hire. "While the informal nature of employment is predominant in the unorganized sector of the economy, its prevalence is increasing even within the organized segment as well," it said. Almost half of the organized sector labour too is of casual nature, the think tank added.

By 2010, 60% of the organized manufacturing employment was in the nature of informal contracts and 80% of the organized non-manufacturing employment was in the nature of informal contract, the study said.

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